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There is little science behind figuring out what books will hit it big. That statement is both one that’s true and one that’s a little bit misleading. Authors who have had breakout hits or who are reliably good or who have a history of being award winners will be pretty good bets on seeing their latest book be “big.” But beyond that, much of it comes down to what’s hot in the publishing market and how much money and publicity/marketing effort goes into any title.
In the YA world and beyond, much of that effort can be visualized through print runs and ad spending that happens even before the book is anywhere near hitting shelves. Print runs are the projected number of books to be published—it’s not always accurate nor necessarily true, but instead, a picture of anticipated interest—and advertisement on books pre-publication can be in your traditional outlets, as well as newsletters, social media, influencers, and the one that has become more and more prominent in the last several years: flashier spots in publisher catalogs on sites like Edelweiss.
Here’s an example of that from the ABRAMS fall 2024 catalog. You can see the print run right in the advertisement for Avatar, the Last Airbender: The Reckoning of Roku by Randy Ribay:
Taking this imperfect science, find here some of the books that will likely be big YA titles to hit shelves in the first few months of 2025. These are based on the very last thing mentioned above, titles that boast a sizable print run and that have garnered more space in any given publisher catalog. If you work in any place where young people will be seeking out books, like a library or classroom, you might want to preorder these. If you’re simply a lover of all things YA, well, here’s your opportunity to get ahead of the curve with what will likely be hot at the start of the new year.
I’ve broken this down into two lists. All of the books considered for these lists are from the big five publishers for the sake of ease. It should come as little surprise that, despite better work in publishing books by people of color, they still do not get the same level of marketing/publicity cash as white author counterparts do.
In this first list, each book will have projected print runs beginning at 100,000 copies, if that information was provided. I’ve noted what was listed in each catalog entry and want to point out that some of these have significant print runs not only in their hardcover editions but in deluxe editions publishing simultaneously. A couple of paperbacks have pretty impressive numbers, too, which you’ll see.
A 100,000 print run is huge. It also doesn’t necessarily mean that that many copies will be published, but it is a pretty certain indication the intention is for that book to be a lead title.
Watch Me by Tahereh Mafi (April 15)
Five-hundred-thousand hardcover print run, plus 100k print run for the deluxe edition
It should come as no surprise that a new series from Mafi would be a huge title. The book is set 10 years after the end of the Shatter Me series. Given that Shatter Me is 15 years old (sorry, y’all), I’m curious how well this will land with today’s generation of teen readers. Adults who loved the original will likely be excited, and it’s worth a reminder that the 15-year-olds who read this when they were 15 are now 30, so they are the adults.
Sweet Chaos by Tracy Wolff (May 6)
Two-hundred-thousand print run for the traditional hardcover, with an additional 100k print run for the deluxe edition.
This is the second installment in Wolff’s latest series. Given her sales with the first series, which includes books like Crave and Covet, seeing this big a print run isn’t especially surprising.
We Could Be Magic by Marissa Meyer, illustrated by Joelle Murray (June 3)
One-hundred-fifty-thousand paperback print run, 10k hardcover print run.
This book is having a simultaneous print run in paperback and hardcover. It’s a comic, so the heavier run in paperback is pretty common in YA. It’s Marissa Meyer’s first foray into comics, and given her popularity in traditional novels, betting big on this isn’t a surprise.
Fable for the End of the World by Ava Reid (March 4)
This one’s got a 100k print run for the deluxe edition and a 125k print run for the standard hardcover.
Reid’s A Study in Drowning was a New York Times bestseller, and the pitch for her next book angles it as a romantic dystopian novel. Given the huge popularity of romantasy right now—whether or not a science fiction romance is going to fall within that category is debatable, of course, but it’s close enough to be a read-alike for fans of romantasy—paired with the popularity of her debut novel (which also had significant publisher support behind it!) the print run isn’t entirely surprising. It’s nice to see an LGBTQ+-centered romance get that kind of push.
The endpapers of the deluxe edition sure are pretty. (The cover, in my mind, looks like every other similar book right now).
The Executioner’s Three by Susan Dennard (August 6)
This one has a 150k first print run in hardcover.
Dennard’s books are consistently bestsellers, and the author has had a huge following since her debut. This one’s an autumn-set murder mystery in a small town full of dangerous secrets.
The Shadow Bride by Shelby Mahurin (March 25)
One-hundred-fifty-thousand hardcover print run.
This is the second book in Mahurin’s duology. The publisher is comparing it to Sarah J. Maas, and it has at its center a romance between a vampire and the person who tried to kill him.
After Life by Gayle Forman (January 7)
One-hundred-twenty-five-thousand print run for hardcover.
Forman is a perennially popular staple in YA, and her latest novel takes her toward the emotionally-hefty style of her book If I Stay. After Life is a story about a girl who returns home to her mom years after she was declared dead.
(S)kin by Ibi Zoboi (February 11)
One-hundred-twenty-five-thousand print run for hardcover.
It’s Ibi Zoboi’s first work of speculative YA and given her reputation in the category, seeing this number for the first print run is not only not surprising but well-deserved. It is a verse novel that plays upon Caribbean folklore.
Where There’s Room for Us by Hayley Kiyoko (June 3)
One-hundred-twenty-five-thousand print run for hardcover.
At the time of writing this, there is no information about this book, be it description or cover. But given that Kiyoko has a huge following for her music and her acting and that her debut, Girls Like Girls, did well, this number is not surprising.
Twelfth Knight by Alexene Farol Follmuth
It’s rare to see such a huge print run for paperback, but here it is. This Reese’s Book Club selection from the summer will have 125,000 paperback run.
Although the cover pictured here is one you might be familiar with, it looks like there might be a new look in paperback.
Kirby’s Lessons for Falling (in Love) by Laura Gao
Gao’s latest graphic novel will have a 100k print run in paperback—again, most graphic novels hit in larger paperback runs than traditional novels—but it will have a 15k hardcover run, too. That brings it to 115,000.
This one’s compared to Heartstopper and follows a top-notch rock climber who finds herself too injured to continue. She takes on a role in the school newspaper as an astrological romance matchmaker with another writer, and, well, let’s just say some stars align for a sweet, slow-burn queer romance.
Graphic novels having huge print runs is not new, but these numbers feel especially high—a reminder of just how popular and well-positioned they are in the YA market.
All of the following titles have a listed print run of 100,000:
The second list here is for publishers who do not provide print run information; some publishers, like Penguin Random House and Scholastic, simply don’t include this in their catalogs. I’ve pulled titles with flashy advertising in the catalog and/or are selling entire display sets of that title. That’s pre-publication spending they’re making in hopes of catching the attention of future bulk buyers.
- Sunrise on the Reaping by Suzanne Collins—This addition should be a surprise to no one, given that Collins’s books have been huge for well over a decade.
- Oathbound by Tracy Deonn—The third in a best-selling series.
- Run Away With Me by Brian Selznick—beloved for his middle grade books, this is Selznick’s YA debut.
- All Better Now by Neal Shusterman—A perennially bestseller and award-winning author, it’s noteworthy that this book is HUGE. It weighs in at 530 pages.
- A Burning in the Bones by Scott Reintgen—The third novel in a mega-popular series. If you haven’t been reading or paying attention to Reintgen, you should be.
- Shampoo Unicorn by Sawyer Lovett—honestly, little more is necessary than that title!
We’re in for a packed early 2025, y’all!
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Thanks as always for hanging out, and we’ll see you again on Thursday.
Until then, happy reading!