Tory MPs plotting the Rwanda rebellion are resigned to securing minimal changes to the legislation – despite some belief senior figures are poised to quit party roles over the bill.
Almost 60 MPs have publicly backed the bill and some rebels hope that Lee Anderson, deputy chair of the Conservative Party, may resign and back rebel amendments.
However, the Politics at Jack and Sam’s Podcast has heard from senior government insiders saying there is “no sense of panic” at this week’s vote – unlike before Christmas – and rebels are not optimistic about securing change.
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Although more than 55 MPs have backed amendments prepared by Robert Jenrick and a team on the Tory right, without the cooperation of opposition parties none of the amendments will gain a majority and pass into law.
On Tuesday rebels expect amendments about the ability of individuals to appeal against being sent to Rwanda, while on Wednesday the debate should focus on the European Convention of Human Rights, according to rebels.
This assumes Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker, selects their amendments.
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The podcast, with Sky News and Politico, reveals that the government is intending to bring forward a vote on the final configuration of the bill to this Wednesday – in a further sign of their confidence.
Opposition parties will vote against the government at this stage, but rebels think only a maximum of a dozen Tory MPs may vote against the government at this point – not enough to secure defeat.
Rebels still think there is no chance of the bill enabling flights to take off to Rwanda. Ministers have advised there is a 50-50 chance of success.
The House of Lords and courts are still likely to pose big challenges to the policy if it gets through the Commons.